2023 UAlbany vs New Hampshire

UAlbany Vs. New Hampshire Prediction And More Week 7 CAA Picks

UAlbany Vs. New Hampshire Prediction And More Week 7 CAA Picks

Reigning CAA co-champion New Hampshire returns from its bye needing a conference win. UAlbany visits the Wildcats on a roll to start league play.

Oct 12, 2023 by Kyle Kensing
UAlbany Vs. New Hampshire Prediction And More Week 7 CAA Picks

A season ago, UAlbany dropped five games by a total of 18 points — a little more than a field goal a contest on average. The Great Danes' run of near-misses began Week 2 hosting New Hampshire, a game in which Dylan Laube erupted for 202 rushing yards and three touchdowns to power the Wildcats to a 28-23 victory. 

The win improved UNH to 2-0 in the Coastal Athletic Association after a thrilling, season-opening win over Monmouth. The strong start set the Wildcats on their way to a share of the conference championship and berth in the FCS Playoffs. 

UAlbany and New Hampshire meet again in 2023, and roles are reversed. 

UAlbany heads to Durham in Week 7 one of three teams still undefeated in CAA play after a 24-17 win at Towson. Coming on the heels of a 31-10 defeat of Villanova, the Great Danes are 2-0 in league for the first time since 2012 when they were members of the Northeast Conference. 

New Hampshire, meanwhile, returns to competition from a Week 6 bye that followed consecutive heartbreaking defeats at Delaware, 29-25; and in overtime vs. Towson, 54-51. 

Coupled with a three-point loss Week 2 at Football Bowl Subdivision member Central Michigan, the Wildcats are 2-3 — and all of 11 points away from being 5-0. 

UNH coach Rick Santos said on Monday's coaches conference call that the Wildcats believe "those breaks are going to go our way." With one of the most electric offenses in college football, it's difficult to imagine the breaks won't start to fall in New Hampshire's favor. 

Laube is having a Walter Payton Award-worthy 2023, leading the Football Championship Subdivision in all-purpose yards by a comfortable margin with 247.4 per game. The next-most productive player, Brown's Wes Rockett, is averaging 66 fewer a contest. 

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Quarterback Max Brosmer is sixth nationally in passing yardage at 1,573 and with 14 touchdowns throws against one interception, is far-and-away the most efficient high-volume quarterbacks in FCS save Fordham's C.J. Montes. Montes has thrown 17 touchdowns without a pick. 

But what makes Week 7's CAA matchup so intriguing is that the high-powered New Hampshire offense faces a UAlbany defense that just might be the best in the conference — if not in the subdivision. To wit, Fordham quarterback Montes, who has been among the top playmakers in the game this season, was held to 198 yards on 18-of-31 passing with one score in the Great Danes' 34-13 romp against the Rams on Aug. 26. 

Highlights: UAlbany Vs. Fordham

That game marked the beginning of UAlbany's sack onslaught, paced by the duo of national leader Anton Juncaj and A.J. Simon. The two have racked up 16 combined sacks through six games, while the Great Danes have 23 as a team — second-most behind only Lafayette. 

UAlbany's win over a feisty Towson bunch, fresh off its upset of UNH the week prior, demonstrated the full spectrum of the Great Danes defense beyond Juncaj and Simon. Linebackers Dylan Kelly and Ori Jean-Charles were everywhere, combining for 40 tackles and each forcing takeaways. 

All three units within the UAlbany have shined this season: Kelly and Jean-Charles have been consistent at linebacker, Juncaj and Simon feed off Elijah Hills and Joe Greaney on the line, and the secondary with Larry Walker Jr. and Aamir Hall among the standouts have excelled. 

Saturday might be their most significant challenge to date, however. 

When the sides switch and UNH is on defense and UAlbany takes the ball may determine the outcome. Coming into the season, it was UNH's duo of pass-rushers — Josiah Silver and Dylan Ruiz — looked at as perhaps the best defensive-end pairing in the country. 

The tandem are seeking a breakout performance in 2023. Likewise, UAlbany's offense has been solid and gotten production when most-needed. Reese Poffenbarger has a 4:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio with 12 scores against three picks, and the emergence of running back Griffin Woodell has given the Great Danes a weapon capable of stretching out the field. 

UAlbany's ability to sustain drives throughout games has fluctuated. This is a week when the Great Danes need Poffenbarger at his best in what may be a defining game for both teams' seasons. 

UNH is in a must-win position, both for conference title aspirations and perhaps making the postseason. A 7-4 mark is no guarantee of an at-large berth, and the Wildcats would need to finish the regular season with five straight wins to reach it with a loss on Saturday. 

How much that urgency — and the Wildcats' game-changing special-teams play — show up could determine the direction for the rest of New Hampshire's season. 

PREDICTION: New Hampshire 27, UAlbany 24 

Elon at Villanova

A matchup of teams likely to factor into the CAA championship race is also a reunion of the great Andy Talley's coaching tree. Both Villanova head coach Mark Ferrante and Elon head coach Tony Trisciani were assistants to the 2009 national championship winner and 2020 College Football Hall of Fame inductee, overlapping on the Wildcats staff from 2012 through 2016. 

The similar backgrounds show through in the two teams' similar styles. Both Elon and Villanova thrive on defensive physicality, complemented with hard-charging, persistent rushing offense. 

Elon has leveraged this approach to a 3-0 start in conference play after an impressive win over then-No. 4-ranked William & Mary on Sept. 30. Coming off a non-conference setback against another highly ranked opponent, North Carolina Central, the Phoenix head to the Main Line looking to regroup in both areas. 

Elon rushed for only 1.9 yards per carry against the Eagles, then after a strong start on defense, allowed touchdowns on 5-of-7 possessions from the late first quarter into the fourth. The Phoenix try to bounce back from their uncharacteristic defensive performance against a multifaceted Villanova offense, which became more dangerous last week. 

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Running back Jalen Jackson returned to the Wildcats lineup after nearly a month on the shelf and proceeded to rush for 77 yards. Jackson rejoins a rotation with DeeWil Barlee and TD Ayo-Durojaiye, all of whom are capable of going for 100-plus yards. 

Quarterback Connor Watkins has also shown off some mobility, but last week's 37-14 win over North Carolina A&T reinforced Watkins' proficiency as a passer. He went 16-of-23 for 289 yards with three touchdowns, two of which went to Jaylan Sanchez. The pair of scores highlighted a 158-yard day for the receiver. 

While Villanova's offense features both a three-man running-back rotation, and three dangerous pass-catchers in Sanchez, Rayjoun Pringle and Jaaron Haayek, Elon's offense used three quarterbacks against North Carolina Central. The variety in looks produced some explosiveness, too. 

Matthew Downing went 10-of-15 for 163 yards with a touchdown, Justin Allen went 7-of-10 for 99 yards and a score, and William Lankford did his part to energize the rushing attack with 49 yards and a touchdown on 13 carries. 

Ferrante said the Wildcats aim to make Elon "want to throw it more than they're accustomed to," which starts with slowing Phoenix running back Jalen Hampton. Easier said than done. Hampton is averaging 95.8 rushing yards per game and 5.5 per touch even after mustering only 13 against NCCU. 

How much Lankford is used to complement Hampton against an active Villanova linebackers corps will be an intriguing storyline to follow during Saturday's contest. 

PREDICTION: Villanova 24, Elon 20 

Hampton at Monmouth 

A fourth-quarter rally fell just short for Hampton in Week 6, which suffered its first CAA loss in a 30-27 decision against Campbell. The setback dropped the Pirates to 1-1, matching their Week 7 opponent Monmouth. 

That adds some additional stakes to Saturday's matchup at Kessler Stadium; the difference between 2-1 early into the conference race vs. 1-2 could be huge, given the weekly turbulence CAA guarantees. 

Hampton and Monmouth have never met as members of the CAA, but the programs played three straight seasons in the Big South Conference from 2017 through 2019. The Hawks won all three, scoring an average of 44.7 points per game. 

Personnel has changed on both sides, but Monmouth again boasts a potentially explosive offense. 2022 CAA Offensive Player of the Year and Walter Payton Award top-three finisher Jaden Shirden is rushing for 107.2 yards per game, while Harvard transfer Sone Ntoh has gone for eight touchdowns and a 10.6-yard per carry average. 

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Wide receiver Dymere Miller is the conference's most productive receiver at 105.2 yards a contest. Miller also has four scoring receptions among his 42 overall. 

Monmouth should be fresh coming off its bye week, but a Hawks defense that has struggled at times must find ways to slow an outstanding Hampton rushing attack. The trio of quarterback Chris Zellous and running backs Elijah Burris and Darran Butts have the Pirates leading the CAA at 1,246 total rushing yards, good for almost 250 per game. 

For as good as these offenses have been, though, don't necessarily bank on a track meet. The 30 points to which Hampton held Campbell marked the second-lowest output the Camels scored this season — and two of those came via a safety. 

Meanwhile, since surrendering 45 points to Campbell in Week 3, Monmouth's defense allowed 35 combined points against Lafayette and Lehigh. 

PREDICTION: Monmouth 35, Hampton 28  

Richmond at Rhode Island 

Freshman quarterback Cam Coleman made his first career start last week and immediately delivered a potentially season-changing performance. Coleman's program record-tying six touchdown passes jump-started a Richmond offense that had been sputtering prior to Week 6, and powered the Spiders to 2-1 in CAA play. 

Richmond's start in the league standings matches Rhode Island, which returns to Coastal competition after claiming its state championship. The Rams beat neighboring programs Bryant and Brown the previous two weeks, the latter to claim a program best-tying fifth consecutive Governor's Cup. 

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With Ocean State business handled, Rhody turns its attention to making a playoff push. 

Rhode Island's offensive chops have been well-established throughout this season, with Kasim Hill adeptly spreading the ball out among a deep and talented corps of wide receivers. Richmond looked quite similar in its 42-31 defeat of Maine, with Coleman distributed the rock among a variety of targets. 

Nick DeGennaro's eight catches, 113 yards and three touchdowns led the way, but Connor Deveney, Landon Ellis and Jerry Garcia Jr. all had receptions of at least 22 yards. Quanye Veney, who caught three passes for 36 yards, hauled in a touchdown. 

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Richmond showing more ability to air it out certainly reinvigorated its offense, but also presents opportunities for the Rhode Island defense to continue making game-changing plays. Sayeed Gibbs has three combined interceptions in Rhody's last two games, and broke up a pair of passes in the win over Brown. 

Gibbs now accounts for half of the Rams' six total interceptions — which are more than the number of passing touchdowns the Rhode Island defense has allowed on the season. Opponents have instead hammered URI for 15 rushing touchdowns. 

Rhode Island will have to continue Savon Smith and Milan Howard on the ground to create pass-rush and turnover opportunities against the Spiders. Conversely, a Richmond defense prone to giving up explosive plays will have its hands full against one of the nation's best offenses at generating explosives. 

PREDICTION: Rhode Island 40, Richmond 31