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2023 Towson vs William & Mary

FCS Playoff Predictions For If The Season Ended Today

FCS Playoff Predictions For If The Season Ended Today

Defending national champion South Dakota State looks poised to be the top seed in the FCS Playoffs with the season at its midway point.

Oct 17, 2023 by Kyle Kensing
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After years of knocking on the door, South Dakota State broke its way through to the national championship at the conclusion of last season's FCS Playoffs. With the 2023 campaign heading into the back-half, the Jackrabbits are positioned as the team to beat for this year's national title. 

Top-ranked South Dakota State heads the first FCS Playoffs forecast here in the CAA Notebook — a forecast that includes a sunny outlook for a Coastal Athletic Association-leading Delaware bunch that's done much of its this season in the rain. 

The Blue Hens scored their third straight win in inclement weather on Oct. 14 with a defensively dominant, 21-6 win over CAA counterpart North Carolina A&T. Delaware's win in Week 7, coupled with UAlbany's loss in a 38-31 thriller at New Hampshire and Villanova knocking off Elon, leaves it alone top the conference. 

That means Delaware is one of the teams that would automatically qualify for the FCS Playoffs if the field was announced today. 

Big Sky: Montana State

The Bobcats' only loss came in an outstanding game at South Dakota State in Week 2. Montana State is alone atop the Big Sky at 3-0, though faces a stiff challenge from Sacramento State in Week 8. 

Big South/OVC: UT Martin 

UT Martin is one of four teams with unblemished conference marks in the Big South/OVC alliance, a quartet that includes future CAA member Bryant. The Skyhawks' standing in the Top 25 and the best overall record at 5-1 gives them the nod for the automatic bid in this projection. 

CAA: Delaware 

Outstanding defense and a multifaceted offense have the Blue Hens playing their best football in years — perhaps since the 2010 season when Delaware advanced to the National Championship Game. 

MVFC: South Dakota State

The reigning national champions are undefeated on the season and have had no trouble in MVFC play. That might change in Week 8 when the Jackrabbits travel to face a good Southern Illinois bunch, then hit the road again in Week 9 to face South Dakota. 

NEC: Duquesne 

Duquesne rebounded from its Week 6 loss at Delaware with a 44-20 throttling of Northeast Conference counterpart Central Connecticut State. The Dukes are the only team still undefeated in NEC play, with a showdown against reigning league champion Saint Francis on the horizon. 

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Patriot: Holy Cross

Bob Chesney's tenure as head coach at Holy Cross has seen the Crusaders consistently set the pace in the Patriot League. The 2023 campaign is no exception, though Holy Cross is one of three teams still undefeated in conference play: a good Lafayette team that beat Monmouth is 1-0 early into the league slate, while surprising Georgetown matches the Crusaders' 2-0 start. 

Pioneer: Davidson 

Since a tough start that included a loss to Div. II program Barton College, Davidson has rebounded with four straight wins. The Wildcats have scored 137 points against their last three FCS opponents after holding off Butler in a 35-33 nail-biter in Week 7. 

Davidson is tied atop the Pioneer League with Drake, and the two could conceivably finish the regular season both undefeated in the PFL with the other not appearing on the schedule. 

Southern: Furman 

First-place in the SoCon is on the line in Week 8 when 2022 playoff qualifier Furman travels to surprise, breakout foe Western Carolina. The two are each 3-0 in the conference and ranked in the top 10 heading into their Oct. 21 showdown. 

Southland: UIW 

UIW's emergence as a national contender has endured significant turnover both on the roster and with the coaching staff, but the Cardinals continue to flourish under the direction of first-year head coach Clint Killough. 

UIW is undefeated against FCS opponents, including its Southland Conference competition. Nicholls also checks in without a blemish in the SLC, while the league's sole 3-0 start belongs to Lamar — a team picked to finish next-to-last in the Southland preseason poll. Should UIW beat winless McNeese in Week 8, it's an all-Cardinals showdown for first place between UIW and Lamar on Oct. 28. 

UAC: Central Arkansas 

Four teams are undefeated early into the inaugural United Athletic Conference campaign. Chief among them with a 5-2 overall record is Central Arkansas, which has won four in a row since losing Week 3 at North Dakota State. 

Speaking of North Dakota State, the most dominant dynasty in FCS history — if not in all of major American team sports — is still on track to return to the FCS Playoffs. After a lopsided loss Week 7 at North Dakota, however, the Bison are in unfamiliar territory. 

NDSU currently faces the prospect of being not only out of the all-important top eight seeded positions in the FCS Playoffs, but perhaps even going on the road in the opening round. Back-to-back conference matchups at South Dakota State and vs. Southern Illinois in November present possible future pitfalls for a team already in the unusual spot of being sub-.500 in conference at 1-2. 

If the season ended today, North Dakota State would be one of four Dakota programs in the field along with South Dakota State, North Dakota and South Dakota. Add Southern Illinois, and the MVFC currently has five representatives solidly in the field. Youngstown State is on the cusp for a sixth spot. 

The Big Sky boasts four that, through Week 7, would be firmly among the final 24. Montana's huge road win at Idaho improved the Griz to 6-1. Idaho fell to 5-2, but along with Sacramento State at 5-1, is currently strongly positioned to make the Playoffs. 

UC Davis' win at Weber State improved Dan Hawkins' Aggies to 4-3 overall ahead of their bye week. They avoid the upper-half of the Big Sky until drawing rival Sacramento State in the regular-season finale. 

Win or lose in their Week 8 showdown, Furman and Western Carolina are well-positioned for the Playoffs. Chattanooga is next in line for the SoCon at 5-2 overall. 

The CAA features a variety of postseason hopefuls heading into the latter stages of the regular season. 

CAA Playoff Push

Defending CAA co-champion and preseason favorite William & Mary took Week 7 off for its bye, which came at an opportune time for the Tribe with consecutive losses to conference counterpart Elon and FBS opponent Virginia. 

"Two-and-one in the conference, but still very much in it for the opportunity for postseason play," William & Mary coach Mike London said. "Still very relevant with an older team; guys [who] have been there, done that in terms of the expectations of what it looks like to finish down the stretch." 

The Tribe do not control their destiny as far as the CAA championship goes, a byproduct of not drawing Delaware. But if William & Mary can replicate its regular-season finish from a season ago and win out, it will assuredly return to the Playoffs with a 9-2 record. 

William & Mary's docket begins in Week 8 with its Homecoming Game against Towson. 

Oct 21, 2023, 7:30 PM UTC

2023 Towson vs William & Mary


Villanova is in a similar position at 5-2; winning out guarantees Mark Ferrante's team a berth in the postseason, and a 3-1 finish should be good enough to earn an at-large bid. After unseating previous league pace-setter Elon, 21-0, however, the Wildcats control their path to the CAA championship. 

They close the regular season, as they do every year, against rival Delaware. Before the Battle of the Blue, however, Villanova opens November at New Hampshire. The CAA's other defending co-champion revived its postseason outlook in Week 7 with an electrifying win over a UAlbany team that is in the playoff picture in its own right. 

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"It was hard; two tough losses going into the bye," New Hampshire coach Rick Santos said of dropping CAA decisions at Delaware and in overtime to Towson. "You always want to get a little momentum going into [bye week]...We talked about, all week, that adversity can be a gift if you internalize it the right way, use it to refine your skills."

UNH's all-around performance against an outstanding UAlbany bunch that came in undefeated against FCS opponents was the Wildcats' best showing yet. The Wildcats defense shined in the second half to help claw away at a 10-point deficit, particularly defensive end Josiah Silver. 

Silver delivered his best game of the season with three sacks and three quarterback hurries. On the flipside, the UNH offensive line kept quarterback Max Brosmer upright against the nation's top sack-producing defense. 

That allowed Brosmer to pass for 342 yards with three touchdowns, and he rushed for a fourth score. Along with eyes turning to the playoff picture unfolding each week, the later stages of the season also mean thinking about postseason awards; Brosmer is beginning to make a case for Walter Payton Award consideration. 

The Wildcats quarterback is second in the nation in passing yards per game at 319.2 and tops in touchdown passes with 17. Brosmer's only been intercepted twice while racking up some eye-popping numbers. 

As the season kicks into the home stretch, Brosmer will have the opportunity to place himself at the forefront of the Payton Award push — but expect him to have some competition from within the CAA, including from a player familiar with chasing the subdivision's premier offensive honor. 

A Monster Day for Jaden Shirden

You wouldn't typically say a running back averaging well over 100 yards per game was still seeking his breakout performance. But then, Monmouth's Jaden Shirden isn't typical. 

A top-three finisher in the voting for last season's Walter Payton Award, Shirden went for more than 100 yards in 3-of-5 games before Monmouth's Week 7 rout of Hampton. He was averaging 150 yards per in CAA play, but since bumped that to 195.3 after rolling up 276 against the Pirates. 

The All-American needed only 16 carries, a quarter of which went for touchdowns. 

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After carrying more than 30 times in two of the Hawks' first three contests, Shirden has yet to exceed 16 in the last three. He's embodied the cliche quality over quantity, though, putting up 395 in 28 carries the last two games with his longest runs of the season coming in each of those contests. 

"Having other backs come along and show they have the ability to give Jaden a blow without us losing anything from the offense," Hawks coach Kevin Callahan said of Shirden's workload. That includes Sone Ntoh's, healthy nine-yard per carry average. The last two weeks, quarterback Frankie Savino's rushed seven times for 41 yards with a touchdown, showing his potential out of designed-run packages. 

"And it's not like we've drastically reduced [Shirden's carries]," Callahan added. "But we're monitoring his carries and being careful about how much we ask him to do. It can't just be giving him the ball 30-35 times a game. We're going to wear him out [if he does rush that often]. He's not the biggest guy and we want to make sure he continues to be explosive every time he touches the ball." 

With a rare 300-yard game in sight last Saturday, did Shirden campaign for a few more carries to get there? 

"Jaden's a competitive guy," Callahan said, adding with a laugh. "But that was never a point of discussion."