South Dakota State The Team To Beat & More 2024 FCS Playoffs Predictions
South Dakota State The Team To Beat & More 2024 FCS Playoffs Predictions
Will the FCS Playoffs end in another South Dakota State national championship? Take a look at the projected field ahead of the 2024 season.
Plenty of change is in store for the Football Championship Subdivision ahead of the 2024 season, specifically the make-up of the postseason. This year's FCS Playoffs will be the first to seed each of the top 16 teams.
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The national title will also be awarded on a Monday night for the first time. This year's championship clash emanates from Frisco, Texas — home of the National Championship Game since the 2010 season — on Jan. 6.
While some things change, South Dakota State aims to keep at least one element of the FCS Playoffs the same. The Jackrabbits head into 2024 looking to complete a successful three-peat, joining the exclusive company of Appalachian State and North Dakota State.
South Dakota State headlines the first FloFootball.com FCS Playoffs forecast of the 2024 season.
Automatic Qualifiers
Big Sky: Montana
Last season's national runner-up returns in 2024 with plenty of pieces capable of leading Montana back to Frisco. Running back Eli Gillman earned the Jerry Rice Award as the nation's top freshman, racking up almost 1,000 yards with nine touchdowns.
His reliable running style complements a stout Griz defense that held opponents to 17.2 points and just 108.6 rushing yards per game in 2023. Among the returners from that defense are safeties Ryder Meyer and Jaxon Lee, defensive end Hayden Harris and linebacker Garrett Hustedt — any of whom could be breakout stars this season. Montana also added Andres Lehrmann up front, who had an outstanding season for FCS Playoffs-qualifying Youngstown State.
Big South/OVC: SEMO
UT Martin, which has won 25 games over the last three seasons and finished tied for first in the inaugural season of the Big South/OVC partnership, was tabbed to win the league in the preseason coaches poll. And with good reason. However, Southeast Missouri — picked third and tied with Eastern Illinois for the second-most first-place votes — is an intriguing dark horse.
The Redhawks finished a disappointing 4-7 overall and 3-3 in conference, but they regroup for 2024 with a pair of STATS Perform Preseason FCS All-Americans: offensive lineman Zack Gieg and linebacker Bryce Norman. Norman made seven tackles in SEMO's impressive, 37-15 win over North Alabama to kick off the season in Week 0. The Redhawk offense also showed a ton of promise, most notably from running back Payton Brown with three touchdowns and a 5.1-yard per carry output on 19 touches.
CAA: Villanova
With standout quarterback Connor Watkins, a stout linebacker corps returning Shane Hartzell and Brendan Bell, and lockdown secondary featuring Isas Waxter and Ty Trinh, 2023 co-CAA champion Villanova reloads for a push toward Frisco.
MVFC: South Dakota State
Two-time reigning national champion SDSU remains the standard-bearer in 2024 behind Walter Payton Award winner Mark Gronkowski. He's coming off a stellar campaign in which he completed more than 68 percent of his 307 pass attempts for 3,058 yards with 29 touchdowns and just five interceptions.
However, SDSU's historically dominant defense set the tone for the Jackrabbits' second straight national championship and the 2024 group should again be one of the nation's best. Tucker Large picked off four passes and broke up another nine in 2023,
NEC: Duquesne
Defending Northeast Conference champion Duquesne seeks a return to the Playoffs behind the big arm of quarterback Darius Perrantes. Perrantes, who led the nation in yards per completion a season ago, captained the Dukes to a 27.1-point per game output.
Patriot: Lafayette
The Leopards ended Holy Cross' monopoly on the Patriot League championship in the Bob Chesney era. With Holy Cross replacing its successful head coach, and Lafayette returning a multitude of key contributors on both sides of the ball, coach John Troxell and the Leopards are the Patriot's clear banner-carriers.
Dean DeNobile, who threw for 20 touchdowns against only five picks, and All-America caliber running back Jamar Curtis lead the Lafayette offense. Defensively, Preston Forney and Saiku White are standouts.
Pioneer: Drake
Rallying from an 0-3 start, Drake ripped off eight consecutive wins last season — six of which were by a touchdown-and-extra point or less — to earn its first FCS Playoffs bid in program history.
Drake returns running back Dorian Boyland, who rushed for seven touchdowns; leading receiver Mitchell January, who caught for 444 yards with four touchdowns; and quarterback Luke Bailey. The Bulldogs defense features productive pass-rusher Finn Claypool, whose 12.5 sacks were tied for third-most among all FCS players.
Southern: Chattanooga
Although Furman very nearly secured a top-two seed in last year's Playoffs, Chattanooga heads into 2024 the favorite in the SoCon. It's not unwarranted, either: The Mocs lineup is the most experienced in the league, featuring some of the Southern's best players on both sides of the ball.
Physically imposing and versatile defensive Marlon Taylor is the SoCon Preseason Defensive Player of the Year. Chattanooga is also impressive on the other line with Reid Williams and Dave Monnott III paving the way for quarterback Chase Artopoeus and potentially prolific passing attack.
Southland: UIW
After having dominated the Southland Conference in recent years, a stunning loss late in the season to Nicholls denied Incarnate Word a return to the FCS Playoffs. The Cardinals will look to get back to the top of a league with an interesting change in 2024: The Southland is welcoming back Stephen F. Austin, a consistent SLC contender that spent 2023 in the UAC.
UIW's high-powered offense returns quarterback Zach Calzada and versatile running back Jarrell Wiley. The Cardinals defense is plenty talented, starting with potential Buck Buchanan Award contender Tylan Foster.
United: Central Arkansas
The inaugural United Athletic Conference season came down to a regular-season finale showdown between Austin Peay and Central Arkansas. The Governors won a 14-12 rock fight to wrap the UAC title and playoff berth.
The near-miss sets the tone for UCA's promising 2024. The Bears build around the outstanding backfield of quarterback Will McElvain and running back ShunDerrick Powell, and Buck Buchanan Award contender David Walker up front for the defense.
Top 8
Forecasting the eight seeds to receive byes in the 1st Round is especially difficult before games have been played. Overall record and strength of schedule play important roles, and the latter is only evident once games are played.
Giving priority to conference champions, avoiding rematches early in the bracket and projecting both record and quality of wins, the top eight could look something like this come November:
1. South Dakota State
2. Villanova
3. North Dakota State
4. Montana
5. Chattanooga
6. Montana State
7. South Dakota
8. Central Arkansas
1st Round Playoffs
How seeding might impact the make-up of the 1st Round is the most intriguing question for the FCS Playoffs in 2024. The committee always adhered to regional matchups early on, avoiding especially long-distance pairings. The degree to which the committee moves away from that is something to keep an eye on, as it could dramatically later the way the bracket's set up, including the distribution of at-large berths.
9. Idaho vs. Drake
10. Richmond vs. Duquesne
11. Furman vs. Lafayette
12. UIW vs. SEMO
13. Southern Illinois vs. Sacramento State
14. UC Davis vs. Illinois State
15. William & Mary vs. Western Carolina
16. Elon vs. North Dakota
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