FCS Football Playoffs If The Season Ended Today Through Week 10
FCS Football Playoffs If The Season Ended Today Through Week 10
A Saturday full of upsets shook up the FCS Playoffs picture in Week 10, though the top eight remains unscathed.
A variety of upsets in Week 10 shook up the FCS Playoffs picture with just three weeks remaining in the regular season.
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- FCS Football Rankings For Week 11
- CAA Football Week 10 Takeaways: Rhode Island Comes Up Clutch (Again)
- FCS Football Scores In Week 10: Montana State Remains Undefeated
Top 25-ranked teams Central Arkansas (Utah Tech), Chattanooga (Western Carolina), Tarleton (Eastern Kentucky) and Tennessee State (UT Martin) all lost to unranked opponents, causing movement evident in the FloFootball FCS Playoffs forecast. Also impacting the forecast through Week 10: The Oct. 30 reveal of the selection committee's top 10.
The ranking wasn't a total shock, but did offer some interesting insights that clashed with previous installments of this weekly forecast. For example, the top 10 seemed to under-value the Big Sky Conference comparatively, with UC Davis slotted at No. 5 instead of No. 4, and Montana out of 1st Round bye position at No. 10.
The ranking did, however, have Idaho in line for top-eight seeding. How that's affected with Idaho closing against a considerably weaker slate than any of Montana, Montana State or UC Davis offers an intriguing storyline for Selection Sunday.
Because the top 10 comes from the selection committee, the rankings this week reflect their insights: Thus, Montana falls from the top eight into a 1st Round matchup while Idaho climbs into a bye; UC Davis drops to No. 5 with South Dakota ascending to No. 4; and Mercer is back in the top eight.
Speaking of Mercer's ranking, the Bears appeared at No. 8 even before returning to the driver's seat for the Southern Conference automatic bid. Does that bode well for the SoCon getting an at-large bid amid a second-place logjam? Chattanooga, ETSU and Western Carolina have all looked like playoff-quality teams at times, but sit at 5-4 with just three weeks to go.
So many questions left to be answered as the FCS sprints toward the finish line.
Automatic Bids
Big Sky: Montana State (2)
Undefeated Montana State faces its most challenging stretch of the season in the coming weeks, facing top 10-ranked UC Davis and Montana to close the campaign. Should the Bobcats win out, they'll have a strong stake to the No. 1 ranking.
Being No. 1 or No. 2 in the playoff bracket is all the same in that both play at home all the way to Frisco. However, a hypothetical matchup with two-time defending national champion South Dakota State in the semifinals, if the bracket plays out as chalk based on current positioning, seems less desirable than any possible semifinal pairing as the No. 1 seed.
Big South/OVC: SEMO (6)
SEMO continues not only to lead the Big South/OVC, but is well-positioned to climb into the top four by the end of the regular season. The Redhawks loom behind No. 5 UC Davis and No. 4 South Dakota, both of which play a top four-ranked opponent in the final weeks.
Should both lose and SEMO stay undefeated against FCS competition, look for the Redhawks to nab that No. 4 spot and home-field advantage all the way through the quarterfinals.
CAA: Rhode Island
With wins in its last seven straight and a perfect 8-0 mark against FCS opponents, Rhode Island may be just one more victory away from ensuring that it ends its 39-year bowl drought.
The Rams rallied from a 21-10 deficit to beat Monmouth in Week 10, 37-28, for their sixth win decided by 10 points or fewer. They carry a seven-game winning streak into Delaware this week to face an opponent not eligible for the postseason, but definitely of playoff quality. The Fighting Blue Hens are 7-1, undefeated at home, and coming off of a bye.
Because Rhode Island doesn't face Richmond in the regular season, the only reliable path URI has to the CAA championship is to win out. That puts a high premium on these final few weeks for the Rams avoiding the stress of needing an at-large selection.
MVFC: North Dakota State (1)
North Dakota State will remain No. 1 for at least the next two weeks, enjoying a bye on Nov. 9. The Bison return from their off-week to host Missouri State, an opponent ineligible for the Playoffs as it readies to move to FBS, but one of the toughest challenges on the 2024 slate.
Missouri State has won seven straight, including blowing out projected playoff team Illinois State and scoring a win over UT Martin. After hosting the Bears, NDSU wraps up with a visit to South Dakota. The dangerous Coyotes will have designs on a share of the MVFC championship and a possible top-two seeding.
NEC: Duquesne
Northeast Conference teams have traditionally struggled in the Playoffs, and the league's overall historical performance against the upper echelon of the FCS relegates its champion to an often unfavorable playoff matchup. However, this Duquesne team could be an intriguing dark horse to watch in the 1st Round.
Duquesne’s seven-game winning streak and perfect record vs. FCS opponents elevated the Dukes into the FCS STATS and AFCA Top 25. They cracked the polls in the COVID-shortened spring 2021 campaign, but doing so in November of a full campaign carries considerably more weight for this program.
Patriot: Holy Cross
Holy Cross returns from its bye week to close out with a three-game stretch of Lehigh and Bucknell at home, then Georgetown in Washington D.C. for the finale. The Crusaders are in great shape to advance to their fifth FCS Playoffs in six seasons, and they could be dangerous once there. HC's 2024 resume, while not necessarily impressive on its face at 4-5, showed the Crusaders' ability to hang with top playoff competition like CAA-leading Rhode Island.
Pioneer: Drake
Defending Pioneer League champion Drake has maintained its perfect conference record while fellow championship contenders Dayton and St. Thomas fell in the last two weeks. That leaves the Bulldogs with a pretty simple formula: Win and they're back in.
Southern: Mercer (8)
Mercer bounced back from its surprising loss to Samford, the Bears’ only defeat of 2024. With just one SoCon date remaining and a one-game lead over the field, Mercer is in the catbird seat for an automatic bid.
The rest of the SoCon, meanwhile, has cannibalized itself into a precarious spot. Having looked headed to sending up to four teams to the Playoffs just two weeks ago, Chattanooga, ETSU and Western Carolina are all 5-4 and on the outside looking in.
Southland: UIW
Perhaps the biggest winner of the playoff committee's top 10 reveal last week was UIW. The Southland Conference-leading Cardinals checked in at No. 9, ahead of Montana.
UIW draws its two toughest Southland Conference matchups in the coming weeks, hosting a Lamar team that made the Top 25 previously this season and traveling in Week 12 to face a Stephen F. Austin bunch inching its way onto the bubble.
UAC: Tarleton
Tarleton's loss to Eastern Kentucky knocked the Texans out of position for a 1st Round bye, and ups the ante for their closing stretch. They visit FCS newcomer West Georgia in Week 11, a potential trap game before hosting Abilene Christian and Central Arkansas in a pair of games that could determine not just the UAC championship but which teams land in the Playoffs from the fledgling conference.
At-Large By Conference
Big Sky: UC Davis (5), Montana, Idaho (7)
The Big Sky is headed for a big finale in its final two weeks. The round robin of games between Montana, Montana State and UC Davis kicks off in Week 11, with UCD traveling to Missoula to face Montana.
Both the Aggies and Griz have Montana State waiting in the weeks that follow. If any of the three can win both their matchups in this critical stretch, they may well lock up a top-two seed.
Idaho, meanwhile, closes out with three games in which it looks like the favorite. Should the Vandals handle business against Portland State, Weber State and Idaho State, they'll be 9-3 overall with a five-game winning streak to close the regular season.
Given Idaho was already in 1st Round bye territory as the No. 7-ranked team in the selection committee's early top 10, it's no stretch to suggest the Vandals would move into the top eight by simply winning out.
Big South/OVC: UT Martin
With its win at Tennessee State, UT Martin ascends into the FloFootball playoff forecast for the first time in 2024. The Skyhawks have became regulars in the November postseason conversation for a fourth consecutive season, but have only made the field once: 2021.
Despite needing perhaps unrealistic hope to earn the Big South/OVC championship and automatic bid, having lost head-to-head vs. SEMO in an overtime classic earlier this season, UT Martin should control its playoff destiny. The Skyhawks will reach nine wins if they run the table against Charleston Southern, Tennessee Tech and Lindenwood.
CAA: Richmond, Villanova, Stony Brook, William & Mary
All four CAA teams that appeared in the last installment of the FCS Playoffs forecast — Richmond, Villanova, Stony Brook and slated automatic bid-holder Rhode Island — stood firm through Week 10.
The Coastal quartet welcome another entry into the mix with William & Mary’s return after a one-week blip. The Tribe rebounded from their lopsided loss to Stony Brook in Week 9, which launched the Seawolves onto the right side of the bubble, with a blowout of North Carolina A&T.
The Tribe improved to 6-3 and benefited from the turmoil among other bubble teams in Week 10. William & Mary is back in the fold as one of the last four in.
MVFC: South Dakota State (3), South Dakota (4), Illinois State, North Dakota
The frontrunners of the MVFC hold strong going into the final few weeks, poised to occupy three of the eight 1st Round byes. A conference that has been the consistent leader in overall bids earned the last half-decade could see its fewest entrants into the field in some time as a result of 7-2 Missouri State being ineligible and North Dakota's prospects fading.
The Fighting Hawks are 5-4 ahead of a make-or-break pair of games in the next two weeks, facing South Dakota State and South Dakota. Should UND split those matchups and win the regular-season finale at Illinois State — a bubble team in its own right — the Fighting Hawks are playoff locks. But with back-to-back losses to teams out of the playoff picture, Youngstown State and Indiana State, North Dakota's outlook is grim.
UAC: Abilene Christian, Central Arkansas
Central Arkansas suffered perhaps the most devastating loss of any playoff contender this season with its 28-25 setback against previously winless Utah Tech. The Bears had enough cachet built up before Week 10 that losing to UTU did not knock them out of the picture, but they need to finish strong to avoid falling on the wrong side of the bubble.
UCA’s closing stretch pits it against league-leading Tarleton and Abilene Christian. ACU heads into the final three weeks tied atop the conference with Tarleton, but playing one fewer league game in the closing stretch. The Wildcats close with Stephen F. Austin from the Southland.
New Additions
UT Martin, William & Mary
Dropped Out
Chattanooga, Tennessee State
Last Four In
Central Arkansas, UT Martin, William & Mary, North Dakota
First Four Out
Chattanooga, Western Carolina, ETSU, Northern Arizona
1st Round Matchups
* 9. UIW vs. Drake
* 10. Montana vs. Holy Cross
* 11. Rhode Island vs. Duquesne
* 12. Villanova vs. William & Mary
* 13. Richmond vs. Stony Brook
* 14. Abilene Christian vs. North Dakota
* 15. Illinois State vs. Central Arkansas
* 16. Tarleton vs. UT Martin
What Are The Top Conferences In The FCS?
Curious about the top performers and strongest conference within the FCS ranks? We’ve got you covered.
See the FCS conferences ranked using a unique system that was originally developed for chess.
When Do The 2024 FCS College Football Playoffs Start?
The FCS playoffs begin on November 30, 2024.
The 2024 Division I FCS College Football Championship game will be played on January 6, 2025, at Toyota Stadium in Frisco, Texas.
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