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NCAA Div. II Football Playoffs Semifinals Preview & Predicitions

NCAA Div. II Football Playoffs Semifinals Preview & Predicitions

With just four teams remaining in the 2024 NCAA Div. II Football Playoffs, the national championship is within reach.

Dec 12, 2024 by Kyle Kensing
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NCAA Div. II football is down to its final four, and a long journey that began in August culminates with two games to decide which teams will advance to McKinney Texas. 

The Dec. 14 national semifinals feature a pair of programs that have combined to win six national championships, all in the last 20 years, and two programs looking to claim their first Div. II crown. 

Is the Div. II National Championship Game destined for a Ferris State-Valdosta State trilogy, pitting the Bulldogs and Blazers head-to-head for the third time since 2018? Or, can Minnesota State or Slippery Rock break through to Texas? 

Get ready for the 2024 Div. II national semifinals with the following primer. 

Valdosta State Football vs. Minnesota State

Saturday, Dec. 14 at noon ET/9 a.m. PT

Valdosta, Georgia became Title Town in 2004 when the Blazers interrupted Grand Valley State’s run of four national championships. After falling short in the 2002 title game to GVSU, Chris Hatcher and Valdosta State broke through in ‘04, beating Pittsburg State in a classic, 36-31. 

The Blazers claimed the national championship again in 2007, 2012, and 2018, the crowns spread among the coaching regimes of David Dean and Kerwin Bell. Tremaine Jackson can become the fourth national championship-winning coach in program history if the 12-0 Blazers go undefeated for another two weeks. 

Jackson’s tenure at Valdosta State had a rocky start. The 2022 Blazers went just 5-6, including 2-5 in the Gulf South Conference, en route to finishing tied for seventh near the conference cellar. It was foreign territory for one of the most dominant programs of the last two decades and also makes the subsequent two seasons all the more impressive. 

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Valdosta State has won 12 games in each of the last two seasons, and heads into Saturday’s national semifinal having faced little resistance in compiling a perfect record. The Blazers cruised in their first two playoff games, beating Miles College in the 2nd Round, 33-17; and Virginia Union in the quarterfinals, 49-14. 

Sammy Edwards was electric against VUU, needing just 13 completions to rack up 302 yards with four touchdown passes. After throwing for more than 4,200 yards with 34 touchdowns in 2023, Edwards has taken his production to another level in 2024 as one of the most reliable playmakers in all of football. 

He heads into the semifinals having thrown for 28 touchdowns with just two interceptions all year. Edwards’ command of the passing game works well in tandem with the one-two rushing punch from Blake Hester and Alfonso Franklin. 

Hester should pass the 1,000-yard mark for the season in the semifinals, coming in with 955 yards. He’s scored 13 rushing touchdowns to boot, while Franklin’s gone for 14 touchdowns and 706 yards. 

But while an offense putting up more than 42 points per game is somewhat standard at Valdosta State, a program that fostered the rise of the air-raid offense generations ago, the Blazers stifling defense is shutting down opponents at a historic pace. 

VSU has allowed just 10.2 points per game, with opponents averaging just 130.2 passing yards per game. Safety Larry Elder has been a linchpin for the Blazers' defense, doing a little of everything: He leads the way in tackles with 84; tackles for loss with 11, and has forced a remarkable four fumbles. 

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The veteran Elder is also one of four Blazers with 3.5 sacks or more, joining Jemarrlowe Sykes (4.5), Caden Campolieti (5.5) and Sterling Roberts (3.5). VSU’s ability to apply pressure in opposing backfields promises to test a Minnesota State offense built on balancing the pass and run. 

Mavericks quarterback Hayden Ekern heads into the national semifinals having thrown for a hair less than 3,000 yards, right in line with the Blazers’ Edwards. Ekern is also integral in the ground attack as one of three Minnesota State ball-carriers around or above 500 yards on the season. 

Ekern’s 483 yards supplement Christian Vasser’s 532 on 118 carries and Sam Backer’s 908 on 173 carries. Ekern has also carried for a team-leading 14 touchdowns, with both Backer and Vasser scoring five times. 

While the Minnesota State offense has shown an ability to score, the common denominator in the Mavericks’ 11 wins and three losses has been defense. Minnesota State gave up at least 30 points in each of its three defeats, including 34 to conference rival Augustana State. 

In a playoff rematch, the Mavericks held Augustana State to just 19 points by rendering the Vikings rushing game virtually nonexistent. Linebacker Antonio Alzheimer has been a key to Minnesota State’s defense against the rush, which has allowed only 14 total touchdowns on the season. 

The Mavericks may have to try pulling Valdosta State into a rock fight, which is also predicated on forcing Edwards into uncharacteristic turnovers. It seems a difficult prospect. 

PREDICTION: Valdosta State 38, Minnesota State 17

Ferris State Football vs. Slippery Rock

Saturday, Dec. 14 at 3:30 p.m. ET/12:30 p.m. PT

Looking to join Northwest Missouri State (2013-2016), Grand Valley State (2002-2006), North Alabama (1993-1995), and North Dakota State (1985-1988) in the rarefied air of program with three NCAA Div. II national championships in four seasons, Ferris State hosts Slippery Rock in Saturday’s second semifinal.

The Bulldogs bring a 12-game winning streak since dropping their season opener at Pittsburg State on Aug. 31. And Ferris State hasn’t just been winning since that Week 0 setback – it has been utterly dominant, destroying all comers by an average of 38.3 points per game.

That includes initial playoff opponents Central Oklahoma, which Ferris State hung a staggering 78 points on in a 61-point, second-round win; and defending national champion Harding. The Bulldogs bullied the 2023 title-winning Bison, outgaining Harding 452 yards to 193.

Trinidad Chambliss showed off once more why he’s arguably the most exciting player in Div. II football, passing for two touchdowns and rushing for another two against a Harding defense that has ranked among the nation’s best for the past two years.

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Chambliss has passed for 2,551 yards with 22 touchdowns against only five interceptions and is rarefied air with 20 rushing touchdowns as well. His 817 rushing yards are just behind running back Kannon Katzer’s 866 for the Ferris State lead. 

Chambliss has effectively spread the ball around to six different pass-catchers who have at least 20 receptions, chief among them Emari O’Brien with 40. O’Brien is also one of seven Bulldogs with multiple touchdown receptions. 

Ferris State’s ability to mix it up so effectively on offense has resulted in a 44.5-point per-game output. That’s the second-highest average in Div. II. The only more prolific scoring offense? Harding, which the Ferris State defense shut down. 

In fact, Ferris State’s defense also put the clamps on the No. 3 scoring offense in these Playoffs, with Central Oklahoma finishing its campaign averaging 44.4 points per game. 

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Given that the Bulldogs held the nation’s two other highest-scoring teams to a combined 24 points, Slippery Rock has a slippery slope to climb in the semifinals. 

The Rock comes in at 12-1 overall, with three playoff wins to its credit. Slippery Rocky outlasted New Haven in a round-one defensive struggle, 14-7; then topped Kutztown in overtime, 25-24. 

A 31-13 defeat of California in the quarterfinals was the first time in the postseason Slippery Rock won with some breathing room. The Rock’s defense has been at the forefront of its playoff victories, as has been the case all season. Slippery Rock has held opponents to 16.7 points per game with a pass defense that has nearly as many interceptions (10) as touchdowns allowed (14). 

Michael Henwood’s three interceptions lead the way, while Josh Stokes has broken up 15 passes. The Rock secondary is able to capitalize on the consistent pressure that the front seven generates on opposing quarterbacks, starting with lineman Todd Hill. 

Hill has 8.5 sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss, while Munchie Johnson’s produced 14 tackles for loss. Slippery Rock replicating this kind of production against the dynamic Chambliss and a stout Ferris State offensive line may prove too tall a task, however. 

Look for the Bulldogs to return to the National Championship Game for a third time in four seasons and fourth since 2018. 

PREDICTION: Ferris State 52, Slippery Rock 14

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