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D2 Football Playoffs National Championship Preview & Prediction

D2 Football Playoffs National Championship Preview & Prediction

Ferris State and Valdosta State meet in the NCAA Div. II National Championship Game for the third time since 2018. Who takes the rubber match?

Dec 19, 2024 by Kyle Kensing
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Two of college football’s most dominant programs of the 21st century meet in a rubber match of National Championship Game matchups. Ferris State and Valdosta State face off for the third time in six postseasons, the winner taking home the 2024 NCAA Division II title. 

The Bulldogs and Blazers tussle in Texas on Dec. 21 in what promises to be a National Championship Game for the ages. Get to know more about their roads to McKinney, Texas, and what has made both Ferris State and Valdosta State dominant in 2024. 

The History

The 2018 National Championship Game showdown between Valdosta State and Ferris State provided one of the most thrilling finishes in recent college football history. 

After falling behind 31-28 in the third quarter, Valdosta State scored two touchdowns in a little more than two minutes, taking a 42-31 lead. Rogan Wells, having already thrown for five touchdowns, caught a touchdown toss from Ivory Durham in the fourth quarter to put the Blazers ahead, 49-38.


Ferris State managed a field goal to pull to within a one-score margin, then the Bulldogs' defense forced a huge fourth-down stop on the ensuing Valdosta State possession to take over. Jayru Campbell went to work through the air and on the ground, moving Ferris State into the red zone for Sy Barnett to score on a five-yard carry. 

In a wild shootout with nearly 100 combined points, the Valdosta State defense rose up when it needed to snuff out the would-be overtime-forcing two-point conversion attempt, preserving a 49-47 Blazers win – after an onside kick recovery, of course. 

In the 2021 rematch, no late-game heroics were necessary. A Ferris State team that seemed destined for the program’s first national championship put an exclamation point on an undefeated season with its 58-17 romp over Valdosta State. 

The ‘21 Bulldogs capped an undefeated season with a National Championship Game that opened as a shootout: Jared Bernhardt’s 56-yard touchdown run set a fitting tone for a wild first quarter that included Ja’Davien Williams forcing a fumble deep in Ferris State territory, giving Valdosta State 10 points in two drives that totaled 2:58, and brief, 17-13 lead. 

Ferris State then scored 45 unanswered, with Bernhardt’s three touchdown carries and 148 yards leading the way. 

How They Reached The National Championship Game 

Ferris State

Record: 13-1, 7-0 GLIAC 

NCAA Playoffs Results

  • 78-17 vs. Central Oklahoma 
  • 41-7 vs. Harding 
  • 48-38 vs. Slippery Rock 

The Bulldogs opened the 2024 with a high-profile non-conference matchup at Pittsburg State. Their offense never got going, and the Gorillas scored a 19-3 win. Ferris State has not lost since. In running off 13 straight wins, Ferris State largely dominated, including in a 34-7 rout of rival Grand Valley State to claim the Anchor-Bone Trophy. 

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Only Saginaw Valley State played Ferris State to within a one-possession margin during the Bulldogs’ winning streak. The 27-24 Ferris State win on Nov. 9 wasn’t the only close call it faced on the way to Texas, though. 

In the national semifinals, Slippery Rock raced to a two-score lead in the first half and took a 38-27 advantage into halftime. However, the Bulldogs' defense shut out The Rock in the second half, and Trinidad Chambliss bookended a 69-yard Kannon Katzer touchdown run with another couple of rushing scores to power Ferris State’s comeback victory. 

Valdosta State

Record: 13-0, 6-0 Gulf South 

NCAA Playoffs Results 

  • 33-17 vs. Miles College
  • 49-14 vs. Virginia Union 
  • 35-21 vs. Minnesota State

Valdosta State navigated a perfect regular season with only North Greenville playing the Blazers within a one-score margin. The Blazers held all but two opponents to fewer than 20 points in their dominant run, and continued to flex their muscles in the Playoffs. 

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Semifinal opponent Minnesota State gave Valdosta State its most competitive showing of the postseason, pulling to within a 28-21 score in the fourth quarter. But the Blazers defense buckled down to force a pair of Mavericks punts thereafter, and Alfonso Franklin slammed the door with a 24-yard touchdown carry, sending the Blazers to the National Championship Game for the seventh time since 2002. 

Offenses

Both Ferris State and Valdosta State arrive at McKinney Stadium boasting offenses among the highest-scoring in Div. II football. 

Valdosta State has long been synonymous with a prolific offense, serving as a birthplace for the modern air-raid scheme and since evolving its approach over the ensuing quarter-century. This version of Blazers football has put up 42.2 points per game with a balanced approach of run and pass. 

Sammy Edwards surpassed the 3,000-yard mark for the season in the Blazers’ semifinal win. He also continues to expand his staggering touchdown-to-interception ratio with 30 scores against only two picks on the season. 

Rodney Bullard should surpass 1,000 yards for the season, coming into the National Championship Game with 986. His 12 touchdown catches lead the Blazers, and his 25.3 yards per catch are third-most in the nation ahead of the title game. 

Valdosta State arrives in Texas with the not-unrealistic prospect of having a 1,000-yard receiver in Bullard and two 1,000-yard ball-carriers between Blake Hester (981) and Alfonso Franklin (858). The running-back duo of Hester and Franklin have also combined to rush for 30 touchdowns behind an outstanding offensive line featuring 1st Team All-American Will Flowers. 

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Ferris State’s multifaceted rushing attack has been a hallmark of the program throughout its current run as one of Div. II’s most consistent contenders. This season, the Bulldogs may have had their best version of the offense yet, rolling up 264.7 rushing yards per game and a staggering 6.9 yards per carry. 

Running back Kannon Katzer eclipsed 1,000 yards for the season in the national semifinals, heading into Texas with 1,031 on just 114 carries. His 14 scores complement the 23 that the dual-threat playmaker Trinidad Chambliss has rushed for. 

Chambliss is only 59 yards shy of reaching 1,000 on the ground for the season, a milestone that adds a nice punctuation to what has already been one of the most statistically impressive in college football history. 

Chambliss has passed for 2,772 yards with 23 touchdowns and only six interceptions. He’s spread his scoring throws among seven pass-catchers with at least two touchdown grabs, led by Emari O’Brien and Cam Underwood at five each. 

Laying the foundation for Ferris State’s potent attack is an offensive line featuring three 1st Team All-GLIAC selections: Bryce George, Lawrence Hattar, and Jarvis Windom. The 6-foot-5, 335-pound senior Hattar also garnered 1st Team All-American honors from the AFCA. 

Defenses

For as good as both the Ferris State and Valdosta State offenses have been all season, their defenses have been equally strong. The Blazers come into the National Championship Game allowing just 11 points per game with a passing defense that has limited opponents to 131.5 yards per game. 

Opponents have scored only seven passing touchdowns on the Blazers through 13 games. Valdosta State has also been stingy again the run, limiting teams to 3.3 yards per carry. The versatility safety Larry Elder and linebacker Caden Campolieti bring to the Blazers' defense fuels VSU on that side of the ball. 

Ferris State’s defense, which heads into the title game giving up only 13.1 points per game, has thrived with some of the most aggressive turnover creation of any team in college football. 

The Bulldogs have forced 31 turnovers with 10 fumbles and 21 interceptions. Jalen Jones capped the regular season with five picks, closing out with his fifth against Davenport. He has yet to come away with one in the Playoffs, but Gyasi Mattison has carried the mantle with interceptions in the quarterfinals vs. Harding and semifinals vs. Slippery Rock. 

Ahlston Ware, who also has three picks on the season, snagged his third against Slippery Rock. 

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Jones has also played a key role in Ferris State’s aggressive pursuit of the ball in the backfield, his nine tackles for loss matching Victor Nelson’s team lead. Tyrone Fowler and Iosefa Saipaia have 7.5 and seven tackles for loss. 

For Valdosta State, Elder’s 11 tackles for loss lead the way, Campolieti has 8.5 and both Sterling Robers and Joko Willias have 7.5. The clash of multifaceted and tenacious pass-rushes against two outstanding offensive lines provides one of the National Championship Game’s most intriguing subplots. 

Special Teams 

The Ferris State offense has plenty of ways to score. Another way the Bulldogs can reach the end zone is with kickoff returner Taariik Brett, who’s taken back two to the house in 2024. 

His second came against Slippery Rock and helped jump-start the Bulldogs midway through the second quarter with Ferris State trailing by two touchdowns. 

On the flip side, Valdosta State’s stout defense gets a boost from punter Noah Botsford. Botsford has pinned nearly half of his 33 attempts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. Every yard will matter in the National Championship Game, so keep an eye on the field-position battle that Botsford should factor into. 

PREDICTION 

It’s not always the case that a playoff format produces a championship round with the two teams that were the best over the course of the regular season. The 2024 Div. II National Championship Game, however, pits what were clearly the top two squads for most of the campaign head-to-head. 

Ferris State and Valdosta State’s collective strengths are comparable across all phases, which should make for a fiercely contested title tilt. Expect an instant classic in the vein of their 2018 National Championship Game showdown that comes down to the final play. 

Ferris State 31, Valdosta State 30

When Is The NCAA Division II Championship Game?

The NCAA Division II championship game is set for Saturday, Dec. 21 in McKinney, Texas.

NCAA Division II Football Playoff Schedule

First Round: Saturday, Nov. 23

  • Slippery Rock def. New Haven, 14-7
  • Ashland def. Charleston (W.Va.), 40-38
  • California (Pa.) def. East Stroudsburg, 30-27
  • Miles def. Carson-Newman, 14-13
  • Virginia Union def. Wingate, 34-31
  • Lenoir-Rhyne def. West Alabama, 37-34
  • Central Oklahoma def. Ouachita Baptist, 38-31
  • Grand Valley State def. UIndy, 24-7
  • Harding def. Pittsburg State, 48-3
  • Minnesota State def. Augustana (S.D.), 20-19
  • Western Colorado def. Central Washington, 28-21
  • Bemidji State def. Angelo State, 24-14

Second Round: Saturday, Nov. 30

  • Slippery Rock def. Kutztown, 25-24
  • Valdosta State def. Miles, 33-17
  • Ferris State def. Central Oklahoma, 78-17
  • Minnesota State def. CSU Pueblo, 26-23

Quarterfinals: Saturday, Dec. 7

  • Slippery Rock def. California (Pa.), 31-13
  • Ferris State def. Harding, 41-7
  • Valdosta State def. Virginia Union, 49-14
  • Minnesota State def. Bemidji State, 20-19

Semifinals: Saturday, Dec. 14

  • Ferris State def. Slippery Rock, 48-38
  • Valdosta State def. Minnesota State, 35-21

Final: Saturday, Dec. 21

  • Ferris State vs. Valdosta State, 2 p.m. Eastern (ESPN2)

AFCA Division II Football Rankings

As of Nov. 18, 2024

  1. Valdosta St. (Ga.) (27) 10-0
  2. Ferris St. (Mich.) (3) 10-1
  3. Kutztown (Pa.) 11-0
  4. Harding (Ark.) 10-1
  5. Grand Valley St. (Mich.) 10-1
  6. Charleston (W.Va.) 11-0
  7. Colorado St.-Pueblo 10-1
  8. Central Oklahoma 10-1
  9. Ouachita Baptist (Ark.) 10-1
  10. Western Colorado 10-1
  11. Slippery Rock (Pa.) 9-1
  12. West Alabama 9-1
  13. Pittsburg St. (Kan.) 8-2
  14. Indianapolis (Ind.) 10-1
  15. Lenoir-Rhyne (N.C.) 9-2
  16. Angelo St. (Tex.) 9-2
  17. Wingate (N.C.) 9-1
  18. Colorado School of Mines 8-3
  19. Central Washington 8-3
  20. California (Pa.) 8-2
  21. West Florida 7-3
  22. Augustana (S.D.) 8-3
  23. Southern Arkansas 9-2
  24. Carson-Newman (Tenn.) 9-2
  25. Central Missouri 8-3

Dropped Out: Minnesota St. (18), Findlay (Ohio) (22).

Others Receiving Votes: Fort Hays St. (Kan.), 65; East Stroudsburg (Pa.), 45; Virginia Union, 38; Miles (Ala.), 36; Minnesota St., 34; New Haven (Conn.), 21; Findlay (Ohio), 18; Bemidji St. (Minn.), 9; Sioux Falls (S.D.), 4; Davenport (Mich.), 3; Ashland (Ohio), 2; Glenville St. (W.Va.), 1.

To see the D2Football.com Top 25 Poll, click here.

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