If you’re looking for a place to start evaluating the depth of Colonial Athletic Association football in 2021, start at the bottom. 

The preseason predictions released ahead of media day featured at No. 12, an Elon team that opened the spring ranked in the national Top 25 before injuries piled up; William & Mary, which finished 2019 on an upswing with young talent, at No. 11; hard-nosed Stony Brook, winner of last season’s Golden Apple, at No. 10; and a talented Maine team with an explosive offense at No. 9. 

Of course, somebody has to be voted at or near the bottom. And, outside of James Madison — a logical pick at No. 1 after only losing twice to FCS opponents in the last two seasons, each in playoff nail-biters — and Delaware at No. 2 after its semifinal run, the rest of the Colonial may as well be 10 coin flips. 

“The last people I’d want to predict anything for me are a bunch of football coaches,” UAlbany coach Greg Gattuso said. 

Gattuso’s Great Danes, tabbed at No. 8 this season, provide maybe the quintessential example in recent years of CAA depth, and the meaning of preseason polls in general.  

“The last time [before the 2019 season], we [were] picked to finish, what, second-to-last? And we finished second,” said UAlbany running back Karl Mofor. 

"More can always be done"

Karl Mofor speaking on some of his preseason accolades 😎🏆#BeGreat #WinTheDay 🟪🟨 pic.twitter.com/Lrj51QO2VS

— UAlbany Football (@UAlbanyFootball) August 9, 2021

Almost. UAlbany was picked to finish last before winning nine games, including a playoff rout over Northeast champion Central Connecticut State. The Great Danes return standout rusher Mofor from that squad, as well quarterback Jeff Undercuffler, tight end LJ Wesneski, and linebacker Levi Metheny. 

And while UAlbany’s slip in the preseason poll is likely a reflection of the Great Danes’ 1-3 finish in the spring season, the truncated docket gave newcomers like defensive end Jared Verse a chance to dive into college football ahead of their first full campaign. 

UAlbany is indeed a candidate to again outperform expectations, but Gattuso nominated a CAA counterpart for that role this fall. 

“The team that will probably have the biggest surprise year is Elon,” he said. “Because this conference is about strength from top-to-bottom and it’s about staying healthy.”

The qualifier of staying healthy is also a key reason not to judge Elon based on the past season. 

A trying spring for the Phoenix began with quarterback Davis Cheek sustaining what he called a “freak” foot injury a week before the opener. Joey Baughman played well in Cheek’s place while leading Elon to an opening-week defeat of Davidson, a team that qualified for the FCS Playoffs. 

But after Baughman also went down midway through the Phoenix’s matchup with Gardner-Webb, with the Phoenix holding a big lead, the season took a turn. Their struggles the rest of the way explain the preseason-poll distinction, but the challenges also helped the Phoenix build for the fall. 

“We played a lot of young guys in that season. I’m confident in the growth that we’ve made this summer,” Elon coach Tony Trisciani said. The Phoenix’s springtime youth included rotating as many as three freshmen on the offensive line with the departure of “three, four-year starters. 

“I’m pleased with the growth we’ve made up front,” Trisciani added with regard to the line. “And the effort our guys have put in in the offseason and the development of some young players around a couple veterans, Mike Purcell and Nick Cerimele.” 

When camp gets tough, we turn up the heat. #AED #PhoenixRising pic.twitter.com/VE5B5JcVz3

— Elon Football (@ElonFootball) August 12, 2021

William & Mary endured similar struggles that perhaps obfuscate the positive upswing on which the Tribe closed out 2019, Mike London’s first season as head coach. 

In that campaign, William & Mary closed out with wins in three of its last four — including an overtime win over rival Richmond. The Spiders, pegged in the top portion of the 2021 CAA preseason poll, exacted revenge to open last spring. 

However, the one-score differential in each game speaks to the narrow margin between a squad like Richmond that finished the past season ranked No. 15 nationally, and a William & Mary tagged at No. 11 in the CAA. 

London said the Tribe return their entire starting rotation, touching on a major theme for the entire Colonial heading into 2021: The peculiar circumstances that forced a spring season also resulted in the NCAA granting athletes an extra year of eligibility. 

Keys for @wmtribefootball to have a successful season?

We go to @jaybirdcolley for his insight pic.twitter.com/DxL41oVPc3

— CAA Football (@CAAFootball) August 13, 2021

Much like London at William & Mary, Stony Brook’s Chuck Priore noted that “everybody’s back but one player” on the Seawolves offense. 

“We lost three kids from the defensive side of the ball, pretty good players,” he said. “But once again, [we] had a lot of reps for some of the younger kids [in spring].” 

All that experience across the entirety of the conference promises parity and a wide-open season — even more so than usual in what might already be the deepest league in the Football Championship Subdivision.